Question: You mentioned home battery back up. Would it not be cheaper to install, connect, and maintain larger battery facilities that provide storage to dozens or hundreds of homes? My understanding is that the grid exists to allow us to capture big scale economies. Is there a specific benefit to disaggregating batteries?
Yes I think that distribution-level battery (and solar) capacity will tend to be more costly per kilowatt than utility-scale projects. But distribution-level installations have the advantage that they can be deployed more quickly, because they skip the utility-scale generation interconnection queue. Which end of that trade-off is preferable will depend on circumstances. I think that increasingly many utilities will look to support installation of distribution-level capacity as they face a quickly approaching supply crunch.
Aggregate grid utilisation can make non-firm connections look like an obvious answer. But transmission doesn't work at the aggregate level. The constraint is usually the capacity of specific conductors, transformers and substations under particular operating conditions, not 'the grid' as a whole. That's why locational marginal pricing exists. It's also why interconnection queues are typically stalled on a corridor, not a system.
Non-firm connections don't eliminate those constraints; it simply prices and exposes them. This substation, this transmission path, this hour. Which is likely why we're seeing the current wave of data centre colocation with generation: it's easier to move the computation to where the electrons already are than to move the electrons through a congested network.
This was an excellent overview. One followup: how much of a lever (if at all) is improving the kind of ‘dispatch software’ being used to manage the flow, demand, inbound, outbound, routing etc that you discuss?
My impression is that the dispatch software is very smart and efficient overall. One operational lever to increase capacity would be 'dynamic line ratings'. As a transmission line carries more power, it gets hotter and begins to sag beyond its ground clearance tolerance. To prevent this, the grid operator chooses a safe maximum power carrying 'rating' based on the current temperature. Apparently there's room to optimize this further by modifying ratings at more frequent intervals using field sensor data. People are working on this!
While past empires and states used currency debasement, internal passports, and rationing to dominate populations, they were always limited by the sheer physical scale of the world. The integration of CBDCs, Digital IDs, and carbon monitoring and control represents the first time in human history that the logistical means exist by means of data centers to enforce a total, self-executing loop of economic and physical compliance.
So Stargate has the exact same energy requirements as the Flux Capacitor. Does it also need to travel exactly 88 mph?
Great read 👍
Question: You mentioned home battery back up. Would it not be cheaper to install, connect, and maintain larger battery facilities that provide storage to dozens or hundreds of homes? My understanding is that the grid exists to allow us to capture big scale economies. Is there a specific benefit to disaggregating batteries?
Yes I think that distribution-level battery (and solar) capacity will tend to be more costly per kilowatt than utility-scale projects. But distribution-level installations have the advantage that they can be deployed more quickly, because they skip the utility-scale generation interconnection queue. Which end of that trade-off is preferable will depend on circumstances. I think that increasingly many utilities will look to support installation of distribution-level capacity as they face a quickly approaching supply crunch.
This entire paradigm of understanding neural networks is obsolete
Here im explaining why
https://substack.com/home/post/p-206503491
Aggregate grid utilisation can make non-firm connections look like an obvious answer. But transmission doesn't work at the aggregate level. The constraint is usually the capacity of specific conductors, transformers and substations under particular operating conditions, not 'the grid' as a whole. That's why locational marginal pricing exists. It's also why interconnection queues are typically stalled on a corridor, not a system.
Non-firm connections don't eliminate those constraints; it simply prices and exposes them. This substation, this transmission path, this hour. Which is likely why we're seeing the current wave of data centre colocation with generation: it's easier to move the computation to where the electrons already are than to move the electrons through a congested network.
Helion is building a fusion power plant and is contractually bound to deliver 50MW to Microsoft by 2028.
Ai will also hopefully be turned to assisting with advancing fusion power.
Fusion power will address all the electric needs of AI and muchmore w/o having to build earth orbital Ai centers.
Although beaming power down to Earth from orbit via microwaves has merit.
Interesting analysis … but bounded by climate denial; classic elision-ism.
Accelerated rollout of SMRs would help.
This was an excellent overview. One followup: how much of a lever (if at all) is improving the kind of ‘dispatch software’ being used to manage the flow, demand, inbound, outbound, routing etc that you discuss?
I'm glad you liked the article!
My impression is that the dispatch software is very smart and efficient overall. One operational lever to increase capacity would be 'dynamic line ratings'. As a transmission line carries more power, it gets hotter and begins to sag beyond its ground clearance tolerance. To prevent this, the grid operator chooses a safe maximum power carrying 'rating' based on the current temperature. Apparently there's room to optimize this further by modifying ratings at more frequent intervals using field sensor data. People are working on this!
*nodnodnod*. This is such a fascinating area to solve for!
While past empires and states used currency debasement, internal passports, and rationing to dominate populations, they were always limited by the sheer physical scale of the world. The integration of CBDCs, Digital IDs, and carbon monitoring and control represents the first time in human history that the logistical means exist by means of data centers to enforce a total, self-executing loop of economic and physical compliance.