13 Comments
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Mike Barnes's avatar

Incredibly useful summary and reflections on it. I'll keep it around to re-read now and again.

Kurt's avatar

Look into the development and acceleration of biotech and pharmaceutical research in China. That will inform one on how fast things are progressing.

Excellent piece, thanks much.

Brendan's avatar

Has anyone tried prompting the AIs yet? "You should do a breakthrough and cure all diseases."

https://chatgpt.com/share/6a60b2eb-0b64-83ee-9c76-7931ca1de063

Adam Buchbinder's avatar

I know you're being silly here, but have you read this?

https://www.writingruxandrabio.com/p/intelligence-is-not-the-main-bottleneck

Every so often there will be an announcement that the clever scientists have come up with something amazing, and all of the Reddit commenters will say that it will be sent on by greedy pharma companies, and they're right to be cynical because they're not going to see this affecting them lives, but they're wrong about the cause.

The obvious effects are bad enough, but the downstream effects make everybody mean and cynical. We should care a lot more about solving this.

Rick S's avatar

Excellent article, thanks. One comment, I think ring vaccination goes pretty far back - Foege used it in the 60s on smallpox in Africa, right?

Saloni Dattani's avatar

Yes that’s right! But ring vaccination clinical trials were first developed for the Ebola vaccines

Adam Buchbinder's avatar

Whenever I learn more about something, I find myself overwhelmed by the inadequacy of the world.

I learn about clinical trials, and it is horribly inadequate. We suffer and die much more than we have to.

I learn about housing, and it is horribly inadequate. We are impoverished and our futures are curtailed for stupid reasons.

I learn about education, and it is horribly inadequate. We condemned half a century of kids to functional illiteracy because of a combination of an understandable mistake and a refusal to check our work.

Everywhere you look, it's like this. I suppose I could get depressed about it, but it does mean there's a lot of leverage by which to do good.

Zac Hill's avatar

What IYO underpins the impression (I think it’s quite common) that medical advances are rare and basically staggerstep rather than linear? I think that’s a quite common perception - was certainly my own, until I became more familiar!

PZE's avatar

Brilliant article. Absolutely fascinating statistics. What’s frustrating is that so much more could be done, and so many people with the means choose not to.

Pontification's avatar

Very thorough piece, thank you. Just one concern: I would not cite AZT as a win given how toxic it was for patients amidst of the HIV epidemic in the 80s. I think it caused more harm than good. But I also get patients needed a lifeline during such difficult times.

Pontification's avatar

Also, regarding cervical cancer. I don’t think the vaccine covers all types. My wife has received it but there’s a few types of HPV most commonly linked to cancer that the jab doesn’t cover. Thankfully she does a pap every year and we plan to take action after we finish having kids, but I think it’s inaccurate to say there is a cure. At least that’s what our OB/GYN tells us.

Saloni Dattani's avatar

Thank you - I think you're right that it doesn't contain all the strains, including some that are more common in Africa, though I didn't describe it as a cure. I think AZT was a clear win versus the standard treatment at the time, even though it only lengthened survival by some months and was toxic, but more importantly, like the pancreatic cancer breakthrough, it gave scientists something to build upon. You might enjoy a long episode I did about the history of HIV treatment: https://harddrugs.worksinprogress.co/episodes/lenacapavir-the-miracle-drug-that-could-end-aids

Pontification's avatar

Got it, apologies on my misunderstanding. Overall, really good piece! As someone who worked in corporate innovation, I believe medical innovation will drive a lot of positive change.